Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Turn Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."